Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Easter Sunday, Padres & Kerri Strug

Only fitting that a week 1 Mantle matchup would be decided by a bunch of Padres. Let me be clear on this point: I did NOT deserve to beat the Crash Test Dummies. In no form or fashion should I be 1-0 and CTD 0-1. I figure about 15-20% of the time you win, even when you don't deserve to. Of course, that means another 15-20% of the time you're losing games you deserve to win. Life isn't fair, but every so often you get the long end of the stick.

Why CTD deserved to win.

Going into Sunday his starting pitchers AVERAGED 29.8 ppg. Mine a paltry18.8. CTD swept every starting pitcher matchup for an additional 30 strategy points. Easter morning brought this realization. A 35 point deficit with no starting pitchers going for me and an excellent looking Jake Peavy left for him, who already had a 29 point performance and would average out after the second start for the week.

And then the Padres played.

Peavy looked great again. But with no offense behind him the 29 point first start turned into a 22.5. Not shabby by anyone's standards. But I am not a believer in the avg for starting pitchers. I gambled with Lackey's second start (Lackey and Peavy matched up for the additional strategy points) and managed to pick up a 28. Big because Lackey's first start of 21 still would not have tipped the 8 points of strategy in my favor for the week. A 16 point swing in strategy and Peavy losing 6.5 after averaging it out. A 35 point deficit cut down to 12.5.

Back to the Padres momentarily, but first a look at two anemic offenses who decided to take the holiday off, literally. I squeezed out 12.6 points. CTD with 2.1 (BO+ not included). The deficit down to 2 points. And the Padre game not over...yet.

After trotting out Cla with no y Meredith and Trevor with an o Hoffman but still no offense to show for it, the Padres decided it was time to call in Trophy Wives reliever Scott with two ts Linebrink. He only faced 3 batters, but retired the side. While those three points in retrospect appear to have won the game, what fun is that?!?! It's like telling Kerri Strug "Good job landing that vault with a broken ankle and all but we already had the gold medal won. By the way, great looking red, white and blue face glitter!" Nope, we needed a topper. A nail...wait, it was Easter Sunday. Nevermind.

Trophy Wives ss Khalil Greene leads off the 11th with a triple, scores on the next play and Linebrink gets the win. Easter Sunday ends in roughly a 45-point swing.

Once again, I want to reiterate that's it's not fair that CTD lost in week 1. I don't want to play him again anytime soon because the law of average gods are going to make me pay...big time. The words of wisdom I have coming out of this, consider what you're going to do with two-start pitchers before pulling the trigger and setting everyone to avg. I'm not a fan, and there are times where you're going to pick the wrong game. But at least you know what you're getting out of that game instead of trying to have a pitcher duplicate a great performance to keep points. Picking the 1st or 2nd start is usually an all or nothing selection. I'll let it ride and take the pitfalls when they come. And sometime in the near future, I'll lose a game I deserved to win. No sulking over that one, though, because it will simply make up for what happened in week 1.

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