Setting the line up and Roster

It’s the weekend before the season starts. Remember I recommended to you to wait until just before the start of the season to move your players from “Players Requiring Assignment” to either the 25 man roster or the minors. If you went on right after the draft set your active roster and in the process you sent a few SPs to the minors thinking you had your 6 SPs already set – then imagine your surprise when you picked up the paper on Friday. There you are reading about your number 4 SP (Kenny Rogers) going to the DL. Oops!! What are you going to do now you think; oh I can just bring up one of the SPs from the Minors – wrong! Once they are at the Minors they have to stay there until week 2 – hard lesson from the first year of GDR.

Now is the time for you to shift your players to the Active Roster, DL and the Minors. Most teams have made position decisions and you will have the health status on most players. Your top 9 position players, top SP and RP is an easy choice and will fill up the core of your active roster. Here comes the fun. You have to use what ever method works best for you to fill in the rest of the rotation, bench and bullpen. This is where having multiple position players come in handy. Also you need to consider the number of options you have between the majors and minors. Unless the younger player is proven or looks like that can’t miss kid you might be more incline to keep him in the minors while keeping a known veteran on the active roster. This at least gives you a few weeks to see how things settle out during the real games and see who is really going to start the season out hot.

Some choices of who to shift to the minors will be easy, but there will be the ones that will be a toss up. We have already seen some chat about keeping reserves on the bench – I agree because you never know when J. Reyes will go down – at least having a decent SS backing him up will get you a couple of points for that week and give you time to figure out what to do. If the rest of your team is playing well, you may be able to squeeze out a win. Again find those decent players to put on the bench that have multiple positions.

I started setting my roster yesterday and will finish up tomorrow morning. What I found helpful was to open up the lineup next to the contracts page and analysis each position for strengths or weakness. Right now I have a full 25 man roster and will need to move a hitter down to the minors so I can add a 6th starter to fill the spot position.

Right now my roster is
1B C. Delgado (S. Hillenbrand back up)
2B O. Hudson (K. Matsui back up)
3B C. Jones (S. Hillenbrand back up)
SS H. Ramirez (B. Crosby back up)
OF A. Soriano (L. Scott back up)
OF J. Damon (L. Scott back up)
OF H. Matsui (S. Sosa back up)
DH M. Cameron (H. Blalock back up) * Blalock is the most likely to go to the minors. UPDATE:
BLALOCK DID GO DOWN AND SOSA IS NOW THE BACK UP

SP1 J. Schmidt
SP2 J. Beckett
SP3 M. Cain
SP4 J. Garland
SP5 J. Saunders
Spot TBD UPDATE: S. HILL NOW SPOT STARTER
MR B. Jenks
SU O. Dotel
CL B. Wickman
FR M. MacDougal
*****UPDATE: YES, MR DOES NO GIVE PTS FOR SAVES BUT I WAS IN THE PROCESS OF GOING AFTER B. STOKES OF TB (YES A RAY). I DID NOT LIKE MACDOUGAL'S SPRING I DID NOT HAVE ANY CONFIDENCE IN HIM -- GOT TO EARN IT -- SO TO THE MINORS WITH HIM. SO I WAS STUCK WITH 3 CLOSERS AND NO RELIABLE SET UP MAN. SO TO PREVENT TIPPING MY HAND TO ONE OF MANY SMART OWNERS HERE IN RUTH' I LEFT THE RP POSITIONS AS THEY WERE UNTIL WAIVERS WERE DONE. NOW THE PUG'S BULLPEN LOOKS LIKE THIS:
MR B. STOKES
SU B. JENKS
CL B. WICKMAN
FR O. DOTEL
Minors
SP S. Hill (possible spot)
RP E. Jackson (possible spot)
OF J. Gomes
C. R. Barajas
RP E. Gonzalez
1B W. Helms
2B D. Pedroia
3B H. BLALOCK
RP M. MACDOUGAL
DL
SP K. Rogers (yes I had him)
RP K. Wood

Now that your lineup is set and you have found a home either in the minors or on the active roster for all your players; you’ll still got work to do. 1st off keep scanning your resources for possible FAs – I still have $3.5M and 6 roster spots going into the season. Next you need to set the batting order – Use the suggested line up as a guidance but take note of bonuses different players get and how the players are hitting. Lastly you need to go to the strategy page and review how your line up matches up with your opponent for the coming week. Make sure you take advantage of the pitch around option – you should use this most of the time. Yes there will be one or two weeks in which you can not find any a good match to pitch around.

That’s it. Good luck! Play Ball!

Another Way To Keep Track Of Your Players

Here in Champions' Land we're all obviously fairly savvy GMs. Some of us probably even subscribe to Baseball Prospectus, or TSN's Fantasy Source or some other site that provides news, updates and analysis of the players on our teams. But just in case you're not the spending kind, here's a great free way to keep track of what's going on with your players during the season:

Sign up for the free My ESPN and create a page with your players' ESPN cards.

I'll trust that you're all internet-y enough to handle the signup and page creation. Getting to where you add your players can be a tad tricky, though, so here's a little map:

Add content → MLB → Teams → League → Team → Players → Your Player

One more hint... Go to the Page Settings & Themes option and set your player page to the 4-column layout to get the most info into the least space.

Think of it like arranging your baseball cards (or maybe your Strat-o-Matic cards) out on the table in front of you, except that the table is your screen and the data on the cards updates regularly and links to additional useful sources of information. But whatever you do, don't put your laptop in the spokes of your bike wheels.

A true test of a hitter stadium

A test and a great risk. In a league of champions, with sp matchups, 16 teams, i went for the absolute hitter stadium. 99% bonus on hitters from both side of the plate. -141% against pitchers. Ouch!!!!

Believe it or not, on a twelve teams league with no sp matchups, that went very well last year, putting only 20 millions overall on pitchers (half on reliever - yes, only 10 millions on SP). I won... easily i would say.

But trying the same strategy on a 16 teams league of champions, with the new sp matchup, was a whole lot riskier. I knew it from tne beginning and went for it anyway. But the 20m$ approach on pitchers cannot survive with the sp matchup and with the fact that with 16 teams there is not a whole lot of OK pitchers left after the FAB. So i had to go for 30m$. That meant a different approach on hitting.

Last year, my budget gave me 6 hitters with 3 or more FP/G, and 2 others with 2.9 and 2,7. Quite the hitting team and with Linebrink and Shields, life was good in pitching.

This time, only 4 hitters that should provide me a sure enough 3 FP/G or more, and the rest between 2,5 and 3 (i hope). I should be good at home (i was great last year) . But this time, at least 3 teans have a hitting lineup that could be as good as mine, if not better.

If Sheets finally pitch a full season, i could get away with this strategy. If not.... well next year GM might hate me.

Confession

Ok, I'll admit it. I was a vulture. My first year in gameday, I spent the last couple of rounds sabotaging my GM rating. I got it just high enough to see who the bidders were, assess what their bids were likely to be, and make a last minute demand the player would have to take. I turned quite a few 1 year .5 mil contracts into 3 year .5 mil contracts in the last rounds. My minor leagues got started six months early. So I figured why not try this strategy again in the Champions league. Ha. Oh, how naive. By the fourth round, I had plenty of money but precious few years. Oops!
Then I noticed Matt Garza had been waived at 3 years 2 mil per by one of the other teams. At first, I assumed a career ending injury must have suddenly befallen him and the owner was trying to save the cash for FAB. Soon more players with 3 year contracts joined him and Garza ended up getting claimed by another owner. It was only then that I realized what was going on. I wasn't the only one out of years. They were stealing years back by waiving players. Risky, but potentially year saving. I had one bad contract I was willing to take the risk on and another that became superfluous after a winning bid on another SS later in the same round. I'd wait until that last round, waive both, and reclaim them after the draft where the years wouldn't hurt me for this year. What luck! Both players were claimed. No bad contract, no over-payed backup SS. Oh, and somehow I wound up with Garza to boot as he was waived again.

Pass the Tums.....

Nothing like realizing that like the Yankees, I too will have to rely on Carl Pavano in week 1. Now, this of course was not part of my grand scheme to contend in a Champions league. However, I inherited a team whose previous owner decided Randy Johnson would make a fine Ace. UGH (at least for contract purposes). All this is compounded by the the SP Bonus. I actually believe when RJ comes back, he will be a nice #1, big strikeout potential in the NL. It also allows me to have Harang as my #2, Verlander as my #3, and Pettitte as my #4, and Hudson as my #5. I believe this rotation gives my team a chance to steal points from the SP Bonus. Without Johnson, it is a different story.

Harang can pitch like a #1 due to his strikeout potential, but, I believe the rest of the staff becomes over matched when moved up a slot. Now, the total SP Bonus is 30 points! That's huge! How many games are decided by less during the season? Plus, without the virtual series option, a mis-manged rotation could cost you a few games a season, a playoff berth, and quite possibly an invitation to return.

One strategy would be to slot Pavano or Hudson in the #2 slot. As of now my opponent has King Felix in his two slot, so in all likely hood I would be sacrificing 8 points in order to try and get the majority of the remaining 22. I would then have Verlander vs. Zito, Pettitte vs. Escobar, and Pavano/Hudson vs. J. Francis.

I'll need some time to really think this one through, but at first glance, the SP Bonus could be a real pain in the ass.

Too fast, too furious

I think we had an FAB. I blinked somewhere along the way and missed it. Then again, I had little money so I wasn't going to be that much of an active participant, especially considering two owners in my division opted to go the firesale route. That being said, a 3-day FAB flies!

Unsure about how the GM rating would effect the FAB, I quickly learned the value of making competitive offers from the get go. Let's just say I lost 5 points in the first day. And with other owners having plenty of cash to make whatever first offers they chose, I tucked my tail between my legs and stopped speculating what bids might land a bargain basement price for an established player. It was dumb. I advise against you doing it in the future. And I found a way out of it.

Go to the GDR forum and you will find GM rating as THE source of contention this FAB season. I'm not here to say those owners who swear by the GMR and the bid calculator are wrong, but sometimes you gotta take a deep breath and relax. Even keel will get you through the FAB and ensuing waiver wire frenzy so you can start the season with a 100 GMR. Now I know that does not help you a lick inside the FAB, so be prepared not to have all the insider info and know that if it comes to a tie or similar bids you're not going to win. All the more reason to target who you want from the start and don't back down when it comes time to put the money on the table.

By the time the FAB ended my GMR went from 60 to 59. In the course of those three days, it was all over the map. But the end result was -1. 24 hours after the FAB it was a 73. 24 hours later an 84. So now comes the timeless question, "hey idiot, why didn't use that inside the FAB?"

Like the post is labeled. Too fast, too furious. This was the first 3-day FAB I'd done and I already had 15 players on the roster. I signed a whopping 3 players during the FAB. It became apparent, quickly, that a limited number of days to bid meant the free agent bidding would be the place to hang around. Me and about six other guys stashed cash and took off for the "player activity" tab to wait for the FAB to wrap up. And then it started flying. Chad Tracy, Dan Uggla, Eric Gagne (whisper his name so he doesn't pull or blow something. Now knock on wood three times. ok, continue), and Ramon Hernandez were just some of the players I picked up with stashed cash from the FAB.

In the traditional 5-day FAB or if you're building a team from scratch I would tell you you're crazy to use this method. And if you're a firm believer that a 100 GMR on day 2 of the FAB is what wins championships, then you've already laughed at what I've written and you didn't make it this far anyway. If you did make it this far please use the GMR as a guide and not the end-all-be-all of how you can put together a team. I'll say the same about the bid calculator as well. It's a guide, not the key to putting together a winning team. Play around with the BC. If you don't trust it and notice somewhere is saving a roster spot for who you think is a particular player you want, go big. Get who you want and at the end of the season you've got nobody or nothing (GMR or BC) to blame but yourself.

Vultures, GM ratings & Who is Jeremy Hermida?

Page One represents two FAB bidding philosophies-- Vulture & Sweep Week Manager (SWM).

Vultures only exist because the cost of being a vulture is not high enough, or because the benefits from GM rating are not strong enough to reward a solid GM rating.

Vultures should receive greater punishment, or a higher GM rating should have greater benefit!

At the expense of sounding bitter (which I am not), I can accept bidding on a player with other managers and being out bid. Having a competitive and transparent bidding process is essential to building faith in the process. Meanwhile, out bidding competitors and receiving a "green 1" with a few hours remaining until auction expiration allows the confidence to "strategize" allocation of unspent dollars. The post-auction despondent feeling you receive after realizing a vulture bid your player into oblivion sets up an auction free fall.

What is 9 points on a GM rating when you're stealing an MVP, CY Young, or a top prospect? 9 points on a GM rating or a 300 point marginal gain throughout the season? Hmm....

The blackout period fails to achieve the necessary result. The sniping only occurs earlier (time to reallocate $ is a plus, but the rule needs to go further). If the blackout period instead limited bidders to those already in the bidding process, then it would allow managers greater control over the outcome without guaranteeing the auction.

Nevertheless, the blackout period could be avoided all together if you setup a penalty acting like a penalty! I propose you increase GM reductions to 30 points, or greater, if you make your first bid within 25% of expiration.

Who is Jeremy Hermida? Possibly the next great prospect to have failed? Any bets on this guy ever turning out? Who has a better year-- Hermedia or Casey Kotchman?

NT's and Bid Calculators

I have now participated in more FAB's and have learned the true value of NT's - it's a bit like a work role play I once took part in, which involved planning a journey across a desert - you believe that water will be the commodity most required but it was really food, and in the FAB its not so much money as years and NT's that can gain a real advantage.

The use of the bid calculator takes a lot of the 'guesswork' out of offers, making it all a bit mathematical - maybe this should be only made randomly available to bring some of the 'unknown' elements back into the FAB

Just thoughts - but I wish the Champion's League draft was now and not the first one I took part in this year.

Ian.

A study in contrasts

The Gryphons SPs:

Carpenter, Bush, Kazmir, Vazquez, Garcia, Lilly, Clemens

The Crash Test Dummies SPs:

Matsuzaka, Peavy, F. Hernandez, Hamels, Beckett, J. Shields, Pelfrey, Igawa, Garza

We'll check back periodically and update the two squads' progress.

crystal balls and pasta on walls

I think the empirical analysis Lee puts forth on SP strategy is hard to refute, but I'm going to give it a shot anyways.

There are two issues with targeting too many of the top 10-12 SPs:

1) The bidding & competition is too fierce. The prices get inflated. I love Santana but could only go to 15.5/3 yrs/NT on him in our league & the winner bid 17.5/3/NT. It is not as crazy as that when bidding for some of the other top SPs, but still in the 10-12M range, and I will only ever pay even that much for Santana.

2) How consistent is the group of top 10-12 SPs from year to year? Do the names stay the same, or does it vary? Aside from Santana, I don't think there is an SP who has been top 10 in GDR for the last 3 yrs though that is an off the cuff assertion (but you get the point). I loved to see the bidding on Zambrano this year as I think he'll drop to top 30 status.

So then the question becomes, is there a way to predict who might rise to the top 10 or 12, and can you get them cheaply (at least relatively speaking)? I think the answers are yes and yes. I also think it has to do with how scouting services like Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America project future performance. What they do is say "What are the CHANCES that pitcher X will put up a top 10 SP season?" We could define that as 18+ wins, 200+ IP, 200+ Ks, and an ERA in the 3's, and a WHIP of 1.2o or better.

So I budget a certain amount to spend on SPs, and if I get Santana, great, if not I don't usually bid on a top 10 guy from last year, avoiding the "red ocean" feeding frenzy. I'm looking for Blue Ocean here (read W. Chan Kim's book, good stuff). Then I have a list of 15-20 SPs that, by analysis, I think are the best bets to jump into the top 10 group. Some of them are known quantities coming off an off year or injury (think Felix, Rich Harden). Some of them are young up & comers with some risk attached (think Cole Hamels and Daniel Cabrera). What they all have in common is excellent peripherals & history (either in MLB or minors) which says they can put up those lofty numbers at some point in their career. It's up to me to decide if I think that year is coming now/soon.

So in the rest of my budget, I might get 2-3 SPs in the Harden/Felix mode, & pay around 5-7M for them, then I might get 2-3 more in the Hamels/Cabrera mode & pay 1-4M for them or even find a few, as Lee did below, in the FA market. Then, if I've been smart, I've also got at least 4-5 guys signed cheaply (maybe in the prospect draft, maybe not) who are on 2 or 3 yr deals and only cost .5-1M who may or may not give me ROI now but will likely do so for next year. I think that mix, if I judge talent & opportunity well, pretty much guarantees me 3 top 10 SPs and 5 top 30 SPs, or very close.

The other thing to keep in mind is having a stockpile of SPs gives you a lot of flexibility in matchups (as noted below) and also you can squeeze more productivity out of your rotation than the face value would indicate.

What I mean by the latter is, for instance, last year I bought Hamels & Liriano when they were relative unknowns. Liriano started in the pen, and Hamels was brought up later in the year & had a few bad starts before locking in. Neither of them finished in the top 10 SPs overall based on total pts, however, when I put those guys in my lineup, they averaged over 20 fpg for me and led me to the playoffs.

The combination of matchup efficiency, depth at a position where injuries often occur, and ability to optimize who has the "hot hand" can lead to a very high ROI for the "throw it at the wall and see what sticks" strategy, and a lot of its success is dependent on the abilities of the chef to read his pasta well...which is a little easier than crystal-ball reading, right? ;-)

SPs and NTs - An opposing view

There is a tremendous amount of good information in these blogs. There are also many opinions (including mine) that should be taken with a grain of salt.

With that in mind, I have to respectfully disagree with a couple of points addressed in recent blog entries.

1. Use of the NT. Simple math should dictate your use of the NT. It increases the value of your offer by 10% for each year of a contract offer. Since the idea is to maximize the amount of money that you've got to spend, there is only one way to use NTs. Put them on three year offers to the three highest bids you make. The value of the NT decreases each time you use it with a lower dollar or lower year offer. Simple economics says that doesn't make sense.

These should ALWAYS be used only to increase offers to stud players. Anything else just doesn't add up.

2. Starting pitching depth. I've mentioned that you should minimize the amount of money that you spend on bench players, because they aren't going to play, so the money buys you, in essence, nothing. The counter argument appears to be that because pitchers are less reliable than hitters, you should buy more of them. I'll call this the 'throw enough against the wall, and something will stick' strategy. Sounds good, but again, the math doesn't add up. If you do this, you cannot spend as much of your pitching budget on your top pitchers. Therefore, you are fulfilling your own prophecy. The most reliable group of pitchers is the top group. If you bought guys like Santana, Halladay, Webb, Carpenter, Oswalt you got pretty much what you paid for. The top 20 PS guys from last year don't have alot of surprises.

More importantly, the spread between the top pitchers and the next group is enormous, and it shrinks as you get farther down on the list:

1-10 were separated by 217 points
11-20 were separated by 52 points
21-30 were separated by 22 points

So, the difference between the top ten and the next 50 or so is so large, that you simply cannot afford to miss out on these guys. By allocating your FAB money to multiple 'gambles' instead of at least one or two reliable pitchers, you lost far too many points to make the strategy viable. Chances are, there are going to be players who are still FAs that will perform as well or better than the last three guys you spent money on.

I have to respectfully disagree with this strategy. I don't see how the numbers can possibly add up to better performance unless two of those pitchers somehow stumble their way into the top 20. Unless you have a crystal ball, I wouldn't try this strategy, I don't see how it can work.

The Gryphons SPs:

Carpenter, Bush, Kazmir, Vazquez, Garcia, Lily, Clemens

Three of those pitchers were acquired for the minimum after the FAB. I would have loved to have added a young arm or two, but not when those players were being paid like established veterans. My starting five (not including Clemens), has a history of averaging more than 14 points per year for two or three consecutive years. I'll take that over a gamble on a young arm any day.

5 Tips for a Successful FAB

5 Tips for a Successful FAB

1. Set Up a Budget-Generally speaking most teams wants to end up with about 25 players on their roster once the FAB ends. Since every team has a $100 million budget and especially in a new keeper league there will be no inflation. So you generally want to spend $4 million per player. You know more than likely you will spend a little less on catchers or backup 2nd baseman sp some of the big names are going to go over what you planned on spending.
2. Look at the Position Depth. Depending on your league the depth of position changes base on the participants. Every year that depth chances based on players retiring, young players on the upside etc. Even in a rather deep 16 team league you can find depth and certain positions since most teams will fill the infield positions with two or three players. For example, 2007 2nd base at this point is not very deep and once you get past the Utley there are a bunch of ok/decent guys. So if you do not get Barfield, Weeks, Roberts, etc. do not over pay to get #6 on the list because you might be able to get the same value at a cheaper price later in the draft. On the flip side maybe it is worthwhile spending the extra dollar or use a NT on one of the blue chippers.
3. Set up your First offer Que (“FOQ”) with players that most people would not plan on submitting. Why? Because the key is to build up your GM Rating. More than likely most teams will be adding the likes of Pujols, Santana and ARod with crazy offers. More than likely at best you will end up with a “Yellow 1” meaning you only receive 1 more bid to make on that player and only 1 point added to your GM Rating. If you offer a Michael Barrett a decent offer more than likely you will get the “Green 2.” Now I am not saying FOQing Kaz Matsui but a solid player that you would not mind on your roster. If you read your GDR Manuel you know that the higher GM Rating the better and more perks you get.
4. Do not get discouraged if you get a bunch of “Red 0”. This is my 2nd “real” FAB and after going through one I learned that especially in the first wave the big names go for more than I would want to pay. That is not saying that Pujols is not worth $17 million and a NT but that is 17% of your budget and one of three no trade clauses. If you see 10 guys going for $10-$20 million you know that is $100-$200 million of your opponents budgets spent, so that means there should be some guys going slightly undervalued.
5. Use your NT clauses effectively. The NT clause is a great tool to grab a player for less than you are willing to pay. It makes no sense to give Mark Teixeria a $15 contract and a NT clause. Why, it is a lot of money for one player so if you do not get him then grab the next guy since 1B is a deep position.

It. Is. ON.

So the FAB is over and the initial round of FA madness has now subsided. So let's take a step back, catch our breath, and see where we stand heading into our first season in the BIG LEAGUES.

Team strengths?

1) pitching depth. I am a big believer in pitching depth. Why? Because pitchers are unreliable. So while some owners may focus on 5 or maybe 6 starters, I want 9. That way even if nearly half get injured or flame out, I still have 5 quality starters to run out there each week. And so far in the 2 seasons of GDR I've played, the teams with the best starting pitching ruled the league.

2) foundation for the future. I really hope I can finish in the top half, because the nucleus of this team is set for 2008 and 2009. Ten of my regular starters (position players and SP rotation) are signed through at least 2008, virtually all of whom are on the growth side of their peak. So although I feel cautiously optimistic about my chances for 2007, team management thinks even better things are ahead for the Crash Test Dummies in 2008.

Weaknesses?

1) lots of risk. There's a lot of youth on this team. I happen to think it is high-upside youth with at least some track record of MLB success, but there's no denying it -- the Dummies are YOUNG. And with youth comes risk. Will all of my Kiddie Corps come through as expected? Quite likely, no. If too many slump or simply fail to meet expectations, there isn't enough consistent veteran production to pull me through. If all the kids fall apart, the season will be a disaster.

2) not nearly enough L/R options. In my league that got me here, I was able to routinely gain 10-20 points each week through L/R matchups. If my opponent was righty-heavy, I ran out 9 righty pitchers. Lineup stacked with lefties? I could go with as many as 6 lefties on the mound to counter. Same was true in reverse -- I almost had a full platoon at every position with little dropoff in performance. Not this year.

Keys to the season for the Dummies?

1) is Dice-K for real?
2) will King Felix take the next step forward?
3) can Josh Beckett bounce back?
4) was it injuries, or is Jorge Cantu really not that good?
4a) if Cantu really isn't that good, is Dustin Pedroia a capable replacement?
4b) if not Pedroia, can Kelly Johnson do the job?
4c) if not, who on Earth will the Dummies run out there at 2B???
5) is Chris Ianetta as good as his numbers looked last year, or was that a fluke?
6) is Delmon Young ready for prime time?

Best of luck to all -- see you on the field!

Zig when they Zag

A few more thoughts on the FAB process, especially one where you don't have tons of roster spots and cash.

1. The GM rating. You can improve your GM rating, and very possibly get it to 100, even if you don't have a ton of cash. You should use the 'bait and hook' method in order to do this. Any player that YOU put OTM should be offered no more than the minimum salary, and that usually means .5. Be sure it's a player that you can live with as a backup. Now isn't the time to be putting your starting targets OTM. Someone will probably do it for you. If not, wait until your GM rating is higher. Finally, be sure it's a player that's written up in every publication you can find. Two that have worked exceptionally well for me in this years FABs have been Ianetta and Bard, two guys who would make wonderful backup catchers at .50. The idea here is to lure someone into beating your bid by going to 1.00 or more. Why? You get a free point, and a chance to nominate and sign yet ANOTHER backup catcher. You'll get some of these guys, and lose some of them, but as long as you've gotten the two points for putting them OTM, you're ahead of the game. The principal behind this, is, of course, don't spend more than half a million for your backups. Maybe 1 million is acceptable if it's late in the FAB and there's a guy to be had cheap, but after that, you're throwing perfectly good money at guys who aren't gonna play. I watched a player today bid 1.5 million for Bard when he has Joe Mauer at catcher. That's a complete waste of a million bucks.

2. Zig when they... well, you get the idea. I've advocated paying top dollar for Pujols and others who dominate their positions. But chances are, Pujols isn't in your draft. So, who do you target? Well, every league is different. Miguel Cabrera might be your leagues Albert Pujols. That means you're going to have to pay him top dollar, but you'll be getting the most bang for your buck. Apply the same principals, go after the stud hitters. When you see young pitching going for premium dollars, nominate Andy Pettite. He's likely to outperform at least half that young core of pitchers that everyone is overpaying for. People are being frugal in the early rounds? Spend big. Because all that money that's being saved is going to get spent in round five on guys that don't deserve it.

3. Don't get in a bidding war for a relief pitcher. They are far too unreliable to get a decent ROI unless you pay the minimum or a bit more. Lots of guys could become this years Papelbon. Don't overspend for this years Brad Lidge.

The Mantle FAB is over and done with, 3 rounds, 3 minute events, it was hectic. I've already covered the last day, I had to make a big splash in the free agent pool, and I did. Here's the result:

1B Pujols
2B Iguchi
SS M. Young
3B ARod
C Mauer
OF Vlad
OF Dejesus
OF Luke Scott/Kubel/Quentin or none of the above

SP Carpenter
SP Bush
SP Kazmir
SP Garcia
SP Vazquez/Lilly
DH Overbay or one of the outfield guys.

Clemens when he signs in May!

RP Lidge, Sherrill, Valverde, Wuertz, Carmona

Not sure I can make a return trip to the playoffs with this team, I'd much rather be the Bats, who have bargain prices on Wright, Utley, and Reyes, all up and coming, instead of my more expensive trio of Vlad, A-Rod, and Michael Young. But last year I was able to add some key components and get on a roll. Hopefully, these three guys will improve on last year, the Bats will have at least a little letdown, and I can dive in the playoff pool again.

But, that's why they play the games. I'm ready!

Best Week Ever

If I've learned anything over the last decade it is don't be a menace to South Central while drinking your juice in the hood and don't allow your friend to run your gamedayritual team during the FAB while you are on vacation. Believe me I know, these two things lead to gunshot wounds and not having a first baseman, respectively.
Anyway, the FAB started and I put out some large offers. 15 3 yrs NT for Santana, 11.5 3 yrs NT for Reyes, and 11 3 yrs NT for Crawford. I got yellow on all three but I got all three. I had a feeling that the core was nice, and I was set the rest of the way. Over the next few days i picked up chone figgins at 6.5 2 years, Dave Bush at 6.5 3 years (i really like him), Mike Mussina at 4.5 for 3 years, Eric Chavez at 3.5 for 3 years (Yeah he sucks I know), and Joe Nathan at 8 for 3 years. Then I had to go to Florida for a spring training trip with my brother and Dad. I left my team in the hands of my friend Tommy, because he had the best gameday record last year of all my friends. Worst mistake of my life.
After a fun 3 days highlighted by my brother throwing up out the window on the highway and some crazy lady from Cleveland screaming "Who's NOT ON FIRST" everytime Dodgers shortstop Ching Lung Hu got out (I swear it seemed like he went 0-17), I returned at 12:04 in the morning to see my team in shambles.
To begin with, my relief corps consisted of Joe Nathan, Duanar Sanchez, and JUAN CRUZ AS MY MIDDLE RELIEF PITCHER. My second basemen was the grossly overrated Marcus GilesAlso, my first basemen were Nick Johnson and Phil Nevin. I would have been set if Nick Johnson could walk or somehow Phil Nevin magically stopped being old and horrible. Unfortunately that is never going to happen. So in about 3 minutes i pored over the free agent list and managed to find a reliable 5th/spot starter in Cliff Lee (when he gets off the DL), my Middle Reliever in Aaron Heilman at 3.5, and my second baseman in Ray Durham at 3. As of now, I have no one to play first base, because I released Johnson and Nevin to sign those three players. Basically, I reached at every position, and my team is probably gonna be really bad. However, I do have the best outfielder, starting pitcher, relief pitcher, and shortstop, so my team could do some damage.
Something else that is interesting, in my league with my friends (including the infamous Tommy), the salaries of players are reaching heights previously unheard of. Though the first wave of the FAB is not over there are rumors that Pujols may go for 20 mill, Johan for 17, Webb for 15, Hamels for over 10 (??????), anyway the point is, the three people who had ever played gameday (including myself and ...TOMMY) must have told so many horror stories about how we underbid for every player to start off our last FAB that now every one is sending the prices of people like Jermaine Dye (pretty sure hes going for about 12) through the roof, just something to wathch out for whenever new people are involved in a league.

Are fires actually good?

Joining a new league and inheriting a team is a bit scary, but doing it blind in a league made up of only persons who won their league?? Well, let's just say that if I wasn't so honored to become a member of the Champion's League, I may have given it some more thought. Ok, so the fact that it was free was the only reason I considered it. You got me. I'm cheap. Hey, that's probably why I ended up winning my league, though! :)

In any event, once I received the link to join, my excitement about competing amongst the GDR Champs was quickly replaced with shock and awe of how horrible my team was. Could some one who actually won their respective league actually have created this mess??? Certainly, they must have pawned this off on their 8yr old brother. Nahhh, my 8yr old brother would mop the floor with this guy. No matter. Some how I was staring at only 8M for the entire FAB and my #1 starter was Mark Buerhle (8M/2y)?!?! I started dissecting each contract, surely there must be some hidden gems in there. Derek Lee 12M/2y/NT. Ok, I can kinda see how one could have tossed out a large sum of money to Lee last yr, but for 3yrs? and a NT?? That's the type of decision making occurring at 2am after that large gravity bong hit. Carlos Lee 9.5/2Y... Andrew Jones 8.5/2Y... I could go on, but you see where this was going. With my team having more holes than a slice of swiss and knowing it would remain that way for another year, I was beginning to think that my decision to join this league, free or not, was a bad one.

Then I realized, that many other teams were in a similar financial bind with only 2 or 3 teams having more than 20M for the FAB themselves. Most of the other teams had much nicer line-ups, though, meaning slim pickings for the FAB. As I'm perusing through his list of prospects with sleepers so deep their in comas, 4 words came into my mind... 'stop, drop and roll'!! I could fire sale my team and have 100M to dominate the FAB with!! So, I checked my contracts one more time to see if maybe I could just waive a bunch of peeps to get more $ to counter for the few decent contracts I did have. Papelbon 2.5/2y... like that one... BJ Ryan 5.5/2y... not too shabby... any more... anyone... Beuller? Bueller?????? Nope, done. Two clicks and my team was a blank sheet of paper.

Well, the FAB came and went and while I did have the upper hand for the majority of it, there still was not a helluvalot of proven talent out there to grab. So, I need to rename my team to 'Team Sleeper' as those guys are gonna need to carry me this season. I feel a bit like the Twins or the As, except I do have a lot of money and spent most of it... ok scratch that comparison... anywho, my team is mine now and if I go down, at least I know that the lucky fella who inherits it next year won't be writing a blog about whether or not fires are good or bad!

Stop, drop and rolllllllllllll!!!

Post-Draft mortem

Ok, I still hate the new rules relating to losing GM points for players you bid on but it is what it is at this point. I came away moderately happy with my draft. My offense should be fine with Julio Lugo leading off, a middle of the order of Miguel Cabrera, Bonds and Dunn and supporting roles played by Michael Barrett, Brad Hawpe and Josh Willingham. I'll need with Mike Jacobs or Prince Fielder to continue to develop. My bullpen should be strong with JJ Putz, Gagne, Broxton and Fernando Cabrerea, assuming Cleveland does not put him back into the closer's role. My big concern is the starting pitching. I like the arms of Haren, Escobar, Patterson, Jared Weaver and Cliff Lee but all except Haren have current or recent injury concerns. I broke a personal guideline of staying away from pitchers who are not #1's on bad teams by taking Jim Shields of Tampa Bay but his peripheral numbers were strong last year and he came recommended from a source I trust. The surprise at the FAB was the price that starting pitchers went for. $7 million/3 years would leave you with nothing but having to move on to the next pitcher. Given the propensity of pitchers to break-down, it was unexpected that so much money would be pourted into so many pitchers, which was different that the 3 other FABs I had taken part in previously.

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Post FAB & more

I made one trade before the FAB started giving up Josh Beckett (10M/1) for Mark Prior (9.5M/2). My thinking at the time was to have another starter signed through next season at a similar cost. With the problems Prior is currently having though this may very well be a decision I ultimately regret. So I entered the FAB with 5.5M.

My primary day one target was Chris Burke because of his dual eligibility at 2B and OF filling two roles with one player. I also like his upside given that going in 2 of my starting OF's were Kearns and Granderson. I got Burke for 2M/3 which was below what I was willing to spend.Next I wanted to bolster my relief corps. I got Devern Hansack (1M/2), who I'd read might end up in the closer role in Boston and Mike Capps (.5M/2), who is supposedly next in line for saves in Pittsburgh. Whether that happens or not I like him as a MR or FR. Peter Gammons likes Miguel Montero (.5M/3) so I went after him to backup McCann. Day one's last player was Taylor Tankersley (.5M/2). He's had some arm problems in spring training but seems to be a solid MR or SU at worst.

I entered day two with only .5M left in my budget (even though I wouldn't know yet who I would be signing for sure). I introduced Andrew Miller (DET) and Jonny Gomes with lowball offers and was quickly out of the running for either. I sat out the rest of the day. However, I was still concerned about my outfield.

Early on day three I put Nick Swisher and Milton Bradley on the market with relatively cheap offers. Bradley survived at 1M/2, but I had to go to 4M/3 for Swisher. This meant cutting an expensive contract that no one else would want, taking the GM hit, then picking that player back up the next day. So Prior was on waivers for 24 hours, allowing me to upgrade my outfield during the FAB. Again, do not underestimate the impact this manuever can have for you. Everyone else is running out of money and suddenly you have more available.

The sheer volume of players put on the market immediately after the FAB was overwhelming. I targeted starting pitchers then relievers then sleeper candidates and added Noah Lowry, Randy Wolf, Adam Loewen, Mike MacDougal, Jon Lester, Craig Wilson, Erick Aybar, and Matt Kemp. On a whim I picked up Francisco Liriano. Since I don't really have any players I'm concerned with extending next season, I figure he's worth the 1.5M to have eligible. Low risk, small investment, potential ace reward.

Less than 2 weeks to go!

I think I share the thoughts of most GDR players in relaying the fact that we are t-minus two weeks to regular season. Whether you are a fantasy baseball fan or a GDR fan (clearly two different species), you have to be happy when you realize that opening night is a mere 13 days away!

But, how do I relate this post to GDR? The short answer is that I cannot - it is merely a cry of joy from a baseball fan rejoicing that the season will soon begin.

The long answer is that the start of the regular season is the beginning of the end for those owners who invest so strongly in their preseason projections and accompanying magazines. As far as I'm concerned, once the season starts, it's a whole new ballgame. It's about trades and add/drops; it's (thankfully) not about blackout periods and GM ratings. Let the game truly begin.

Post-FAb tought and strategy

Hi,

Very happy to come back to this league. I lost in the Championship final last year and i hope to add the missing element to win it all this year.

I only hade 10.5M to spend it the FAB this year and i needed to add a Startin C,3SP, a FR and backup at OF,SS,2B. Lots of player for the amount of money i had! I decided to concentrate on getting the SP and starting C then see how much money i had left.

I signed 4 very promising young pitcher (Bonser 2.5/3, Snell 3/3, Shield 2/3, Nolasco 0.5/2) and a good complement catcher (Pierzynski 3/2). Then i add my OF backup with the money i had left (C.Young 1.5/2). Yes, i know, you're saying thats more than 10.5M, how did you get the money?!? I waived L.Hernandez (4.5M/1) contract to create the cap space and reclaimed him afterward (to be my spot starter).

Still had some position to fill and i filled them in free agency. I signed Duscherer, T.Jones, E.German and B.Zobrist. They're not great player but i think they'll make do and could even surprise.

So after all is said and done, here's the Newbie Rattlesnake lineup for now:

C- Pierzynski (Barajas)
1B- M.Jacobs (C.Kotchman)
2B- C.Utley (E.German)
3B- M.Ensberg (C.Tracy)
SS- C.Guillen (B.Zobrist)
OF- C.Crawford (C.Young)
OF- G.Sizemore (C.Young)
OF- M.Ordonez (C.Young)
DH- J.Lugo (C.Kotchman)

SP- C.Sabathia
SP- R.Johnson
SP- B.Bonser
SP- I.Snell
SP- J.Sowers
SPS- L.Hernandez
MR- S.Linebrink
SU- S.Shields
CLS- H.Street
FR- J.Duscherer

Minor:
-R.Nolasco
-T.Jones

I'd like to get a bit more power (particularly at 1B) and my starting pitchers are quite young. Still, i think i should do well again this year.

Post FAB FA and Comments

The initial Post-Fab has concluded. My focus was to fill out the bench with quality players that could step in if some one gets injured or decides to stop hitting. Hitters that were added were: J. Kendall C; H. Blalock 3B; O. Hudson 2B & W. Helms 1B/3B. Pitching wise I picked up some a solid SP and some young arms that might develop this year: K. Rogers SP; Edgar Gonzalez SP/RP; K. Wood RP; & J. Saunders. This gives me 32 players to start the year off and $4.5M left to go though the season with. As an example I jumped on Helms because he’ll have 1B/3B capability and you will find that down the road you’ll need those guys with multi-position eligibility to help make room on the roster when you have players that go on the DL but is not going to get much playing time for the next week or two.
Some things to chew on before the season starts:

Remember in most leagues you are competing against quality owners who are doing the same thing. You have 12 days until the season starts so you need to Keep reading the paper/watching ESPN/researching so you can find that break thru player that will keep you in the running for the championship. That is why there is a little cash left over after the FAB, although I would prefer to have 35 players it allows me the flexibility to fill holes when need be.

For those of you still in the FAB keep an eye out on all positions that you are going to try to beef up after the FAB, monitor to see who is going to be left – especially after the last round of players have been placed on the O&M. By looking now you can decide if you need to chase them in the last FAB round or wait for the post–FAB FA. Again during the post-FAB FA period don’t get into bidding wars unless you really need to fill the position – of course remember some owners are going to try to get the player but all are trying to drive up the price for a player if they can figure out who is bidding on who. Now some owners will do it if they know who is bidding to just keep a certain player form a rival. As the phrase goes "Don’t show your Cards," because smart owners can figure out how to trip you up, especially if you are a quality owner that is always in the running. Of course they do the same thing in the real MLB.

Don’t be too quick to assign your players – I have learned from experience that you need to wait until the evening before the season starts to assign your players. If you send people to the minors you can bring them back up before week 1, you have to wait for week 2, thus might have a hole in your lineup if you experience a last minute injury.

Stick to your plan – what ever it was going into the FAB should be the same one you use coming out of it. A plan will lay the ground work in developing a competitive team – it might not win the league this year but if you have the better core going into next year build from.

Watch the waiver wire in your leagues. If you got the money you might be able to pick up a player that could help you – many times people are trying to free up money during the season so they can fill other holes. A lot of times they players placed on the waivers are not worth the cost of the contract but some times a few good ones come out. You have to weigh a few things, does the cost of helping your team out weigh the cost of sticking the other team with half the salary. Also consider is this the contract multiple years and what is the age of the player – if a young player is having problems this year but is signed to a cheap 3 year contract it might be worth taking the contract. In my case – during the post FAB of another league I had a whole lot of $$ and filled out the team with a good number of players but needed a good SS back up but also someone that could be a DH – Mike Young SS was available at $8M/1Y NT. He is not the best at SS I have but if he can average 2.7 to 3.0 per week then he could give me a good DH – so I helped out another team by taking on the salary but I felt that the advantage was mine in the long run. Time will tell.

Waiving players is an interesting action this. Use to be you waive them and get ½ the money back but now you take hit on your GM score. I’m still an advocate of keeping the GM rating high. I will waive folks, especially if they are on a 1 year contract and not coming back from a severe injury. Keep in mind if you claim someone and you have the same bid as another team the tie breaker will be your GM rating. But if you are out of $$ or need space on the team to fill in for injuries then waving a player is the way to go.

Trades are going to make or break your run for the title or your core for the future. Right now what trades will help strengthen those week areas on your roster – seems SP was more in demand this year than last during all the FABs I have done. Maybe owners are prepping for trades already. Be a firm but fair trader. If you are that way you will find a trading partner that will come to you first to try out trades. Use the on the trade block section in the front office section to ID what players you or others have available. Remember too, when you are at the all star break and your team is out of it don't be afraid of moving players off your team that will help someone else while bringing a good core of young players back to your team.

Pugs

Clemente FAB completed, or is it?

The Clemente FAB has not gone without a few unique events. Specifically, the strategy of paying enormous sums to a few select players (Carpenter, Wright, Howard, Utley) then after realizing he grossly mismanaged the budget the manager decides to capitulate his entire team!

My strategy involved attaining youth at low prices and fitting them in long term contracts. I am concerned about youthful hitting taking longer to establish, therefore I paid up for pitching. My starting staff includes:

1) Peavy
2) Bonderman
3) Willis
4) Dice-K
5) Vazquez

Ideally my staff will carry until Delmon Young, Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Drew, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Gonzalez, and Jeremy Hermida take off (if they ever do).

Historically relievers are volatile and the only thing consistent is uncertainty. I try to avoid multi-year contracts and big paychecks. I budgeted 10% of my cash to the pen, but spent 11.5%. I took a leap of faith betting Lidge will bounce after his terrible season a year ago.

At least if this team fails, next seasons manager will have a compilation of youth with reasonable contracts.

Blackout

I did not get a chance to comment on the Blackout period during the Ruth’s FAB, because of a lack of funds going into the FAB the Pugs were not a major player. Since then one of my other leagues has started a FAB with the Blackout option I can comment now. After the first day, I like the option. Of course it means that I might get locked out during the black out period, but the way I bid - I try not to get into bidding wars so I rarely make last minute bids – I already made up my mind on a player to chase or shift the focus to another one. I plan my bids based on years and cash remaining. In this league it was nice to come back and see black all over the place which told me those bids that I knew I was ahead on were mine or those that were red and I lost, thus I could plan the next set of bids based on that information. I did not like having to wait on players with yellow to announce who they signed with. I like the black, because it is more realistic and keeps sneaks at bay – I rarely snipe and only do so when I’m desperate at toward the end of the Fab, because I’ve been shut out of a position and must get someone above average for that position. Blackout also affects those owners that like to over bid on players and then reduce or rescind their bids at the last minute.

What would make this rule very good is if instead of player going into a blackout period for up to 6 hours that they actually sign – this would be more realistic and would continue to force owners to be general managers. They would have to make their offers up front during the initial 18 hours not at the last minute. But having to wait 6 hours to find out if your yellow is a good bid or not is not good – if the player has made a decision at the 18 hour point then let him sign so that the owners that lost out can re-work their other offerings to the remaining players.
Pugs

Hoarding and the FAB

Well, the FAB is complete in the Mantle Conference, and I am relatively happy with my team. Being one of the three owners who exercised the firesale option, I obviously had a lot of money to throw around. I think I did make a tactical error in undervaluing how much the few available "top name" players would go for, as I lost out on guys like Crawford, Webb, and Halliday. However, I was pleased with the quality and number of pitchers I ended up with, plus I'm always happy when I can get a guy like Miggy Cabrera.

I have been reading the other posts here and noticed the discussion re: "hoarding" players. As can be evidenced by the number of players I got during the FAB, it is evident I follow the "more is better" philosophy. I certainly understand Gryphons' point that you don't get points from your bench guys...however, it is a long season and I believe my extra pitchers will prove useful down the road, whether due to injuries or as trade bait. Speaking of trade bait, I'm always willing to discuss offers. I've already made one but haven't heard back; however, I will keep trying. :)

And while I'm posting, let me second the thoughts of those other owners not happy with the blackout option. Unless the blackout is scheduled to begin only when the player is in the final 10% of their time on the FAB, it is an entirely unfair, inequitable, and misguided process. The reasons for this have already been stated by several other owners, so I'll spare the space of discussing it here. I hope this rule is gone by next year.

In any event, send em some trade offers and let's get this league really moving! :)

I Survived The FAB

And all I got was this lousy t-shirt. Hey wait, I didn't even get a t-shirt. Man, I got hosed.

Actually, I think I did ok. I managed to land most, though certainly not all, of the players I'd hoped to get. Taking over a team that had multiple bum contracts certainly presented some challenges. But using PECOTA projections combined with looking at how those numbers translate into GDR fantasy points helped me identify a few players - notably a couple of RPs - that I wouldn't have gone after otherwise. Which is good, since pitching is clearly the weaker of the Bees' categories.

After today's post-FAB free agent frenzy, I feel pretty good about the team. I was able to pick up the backups I need and still have $4M left for the season. One can argue that I overpaid for Jake Westbrook at $4M/1yr, but by my math he was the best SP available, and lord knows I'll need some help on that front.

Barring some kind of tragedy I intend to hold on to my remaining cash as tightly as I can so that it gains in value as the season wears on. That's actually one of my favorite parts of the GDR system - that your budget is effectively doubled once the season is halfway over.

And now comes the hard part. I'm up against some serious competition and I can only hope that my projections don't fail me too badly. I'm actually quite serious when I say that I'm really just shooting for a .500 finish this year. Next year's budget will look much nicer, with waived players coming off the books and a couple of questionable contracts coming to an end. That said, I'm glad I didn't go for the firesale. The challenge of working from a weakened position made this FAB an interesting one indeed.

The Record.... for the Record and more numbers to chew on

I feel like that shill on the Monday afternoon sports talk shows who's pitching his football picks.... but I'm going to do it anyway.

I'm not an expert at GDR, however, I have had very good success with teams drafted using these principals. Many of them are just simple arithmetic, as you will see shortly. But the bottom line is, they worked for me last year, to the tune of a 65-30 record (.684), three playoffs, two titles, and top 1 or 2 in scoring in all four leagues. I scored over 7000 points in all four leagues I played in. Suffice it to say that these strategies worked well for me, but of course four leagues isn't a huge sample size. Still, given the inherent mathematics and logic, and the successful record, I'm not about to change my tune.

Now, on to some interesting numbers. I've argued that Pujols is a must get, and I've argued in favor of nabbing Utley as well. Let's now look at the position scarcity numbers. I tried to determine, for each position, the difference between the top guy, and the the average guy at that same position. Assuming a twelve team league, here are how my projections break down. The average is the average of guys 2-12:

1st base - top guy is 180 points better than average
2nd base - top guy is 131 points better than average
SS -top guy is 130 points better than average
OF - top guy is 122 points better than average
3B - top guy is 98 points better than average
C - top guy is 116 points better than average

SP - Top guy is 89 points better than average
RP - Top guy is 85 points better than average

This, of course, makes Pujols the best of the best, by a wide margin. I think that almost everyone could also agree who is the top 2B, SS, C and SP, but the other positions don't have a clear cut number 1. For that reason, I believe in targeting these six guys, but these numbers are very revealing IMHO. If you can get two or three of those top six, I think you gain a significant edge. I stand by my view that depth is worthless, because it doesn't earn points. Put your money in the field, not on the bench, and invest in the studs. It's my view of a winning team.

FAB Day 4

Wow has this been an experience. I tihnk I went into this FAB a little cockier than I should have. The reason for my confidence was last year's draft, team and results.
Nethertheless, I went in with a strategy. My goal was to bid on and secure some of the game's biggest hitters and to piece together a pitching rotation.
Well, my competition made sure that wasn't going to happen. Most of the hitters I had bid on were not willing to sign with me at the price I felt was fair. So I realized late in the day that I had to accept the fact that I needed to increase my bids or settle for players of lesser talent. Which I wasn't willing to do. My winning bids were...........
R Howard 15.5m 3Y
D Wright 10.5m 3Y NT
C Utley 10.5m 3Y NT
Yes I spent a lot of money on my team's core group. Now I still had to make a decision whether or not to look for bargains in the ranks of the hitters or redirect my attention to pitching. Since pitching wasn't getting as much attention I filled out my staff with the following group of aces..........
Carpenter 13m 3Y
Halladay 10m 3Y
Hamels 7m 3Y NT
Wang 7m 3Y
Weaver 5.5m 3Y
My bullpen is also very strong but left myself with little to fill out my open positions. So once again I changed my strategy and the latter part of day 2 was dedicated to finding bargains in a starting role or setting up my back ups. I'm still hoping with pennies in my pocket that I can find a few diamonds.
My other optons are to trade away one of my starters for a solid performer.
I'll keep you posted.

Mays FAB complete

Had to grimace a bit after reading Lee's post below - sounds like a nasty ending to the FAB. Great analysis of what kinds of players to avoid in GDR - high K or high GIDP guys are not going to get much play on my teams either.

That said, I probably was on the other end of those kinds of FAB moves today in the Mays conference, as I pulled a few irons out of the fire with late pre-blackout bids on F Cordero, Wes Helms, and Brad Hawpe. I paid more than I wanted to for Helms at $3M, but with 1B eligibility plus a FT 3B job in Philly this season, I think he'll produce enough to warrant that number. I look for 25-30 HRs and 110 RBI batting 5th or 6th in Philly's loaded lineup, protecting Howard & Utley, and give me 2.8-3.2 fpg as my DH or backing up the corner IF spots depending on how he performs vs. Hawpe.

I also managed to pull off a major sign & trade deal which really set the tone for my draft. I picked up 2 young 2B in Kinsler & Barfield, and needed someone to bat leadoff and improve my OF quality. Found a trade partner who had Damon, one of my favorite GDR players precisely because of the low K & GIDPs he offers. The problem? His owner needed a strong #2 or #3 SP in the deal, and only 3 were left.

At that point my GM rating was 100, so I was able to do some precise bidding, and in a pre-blackout move landed Freddy Garcia, one of the SPs on my trading partner's wish list. Got the deal done just before last offers and was able to close on Cordero, Helms & Hawpe as a result. No major lineup holes now, and while I need some help from the "upside" gods, I like what I have to work with as we go to free agent sigings:

OF2	Damon, J.
3B	Teahen, M.
OF1	Drew, J.
1B	LaRoche, A.
DH	Helms.W
2B	Kinsler, I.
SS	Drew, S.
OF3	Markakis, N.
C	Napoli, M.

SP1	Harden, R.
SP2	Hernandez, F.
SP3	Matsuzaka, D.
SP4	Hill, R.
SP5	Loewen, A.
MR	Tankersley, T.
SU	Soriano, R.
Cls	Cordero, F.
FR	Fuentes, B.

While I don't have any 40-HR big boppers in my lineup, I have plenty of 25-30 HR types who'll hit for average & drive in runs. Let's see if that will carry me to the playoffs...

GMR is a wonderful thing

And here I was worried that the new rules would make it harder to get a high GMR! Silly me.

Even now that it's over, I can't really explain how it happened. It was a bizarre and wonderful run of luck, mixed in with a pittance of skill, but I managed to get all the way up to 100 at around 2 pm on day 2. At the end of day 1, I had gained 21 points, leaving me at 81. I reached 90 just before noon on day 2. And that was the key to the rest of the FAB for me. Once I got to 90, the entire FAB became much, much easier to manage. And once I got to 100, I never dropped below 98 the rest of the way. Knowing -- at all times -- whether or not you are in the lead on a given player makes managing bids and contracts much easier.

For each player who I really wanted, I tried to make sure I was in the lead when the clock reached 6 hours left. After that point, the player could go into hibernation at any point, which would rob me of my opportunity to use my GMR advantage to top any intervening bids that edged ahead of mine. Only once did I have happen to me what apparently happened to leehaak 7 times in one night -- I went to bed in the lead on a player and woke up to find that I had been beaten out and the player had gone into blackout.

My overall FAB strategy was discussed in the forum, but in a nutshell my primary focus was on getting the starting pitchers I wanted. Heading into the FAB I targeted Felix Hernandez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Cole Hamels, Matt Garza, James Shields, and one other pitcher who shall remain nameless at present (because I lost the bidding for him but may still try to acquire him in the future). Shortly before the FAB I bought the contract of Jake Peavy from his prior owner, which allowed that team to open up some more salary cap room. So that enabled me to build a starting rotation I feel very good about: Peavy, Hernandez, Matsuzaka, Hamels, and Josh Beckett, whom I picked up at a $3 MM discount late in the FAB after another owner waived him mid-FAB. And with the exception of Peavy, whose contract I acquired with only 1 year left, all of my primary 5 SP are locked up for 2 or 3 years. In case of injury or ineffectiveness, I have Garza, Shields, Pelfrey, and Igawa waiting in the wings. And perhaps a few others from the FA pool . . . :-)

On offense, my strategy can be summed up in two words: Carl Crawford. As noted in the forum, I came thisclose to losing Crawford and having to radically shift my strategy at the beginning of day 2. I went into the FAB needing to fill 5 starting offensive spots -- prior ownership had left me Delmon Young, Paul Konerko, Garrett Atkins, and Nick Markakis. I targeted a specific player at each of the 5 missing positions as my "wish list." I ended up getting 3 out of 5, which works for me. Unfortunately, I ended up having to compromise pretty severely on the other two. It remains to be seen whether this will come back to haunt me.

More action to come as the FA market heats up. I'll check back later to report on the goings-on in the initial flurry of FAB leftovers.

Don't Strike Out.... Double Your Pleasure

Before I get to today's interesting and rather strange results in the Mantle Conference, I think it's worth mentioning that GDR has a unique scoring system. This isn't your father's 4x4 rotis league. For that reason, you need to look closely at the stats, and you're very likely to find some great bargains that will perform as well or better than the big names. Let's take a look at a couple of players projections from a rotis point of view:

Player 1 - 34 HRs, 124 RBIs, 118 runs, 14 SB, .297 BA
Player 2 - 27 HRs, 101 RBIs, 110 runs, 7 SB, .301 BA

In a regular fantasy draft, I'm taking player number 1 every time. But this isn't rotis, so let's take a look at some of the secondary numbers:

Player 1 - 27 doubles, 145 Ks, 24 GIDP
Player 2 - 51 doubles, 72 Ks, 11 GIDP

When you add it all up, player 2 is projected to outperform player 1. I'm willing to bet he went for far less in your draft than player 1. ARod or Rolen. Rolen is at the very least going to be a better value, and has a pretty decent chance to outperform A Rod straight up. Pay attention to the scoring system.

Two of the new rules came into play today to pretty much ruin the final day of signings in the Mantle Conference. Well, ruin them for me, anyway. I was looking at signing four or five players today, having a couple million left to add to the new FA money, and a pretty full roster of starters. When I logged on this morning, I found that everyone, and I mean everyone, had turned red. I quickly went to counter offer a couple of the key guys. BLACKOUT!! Yep, never got a chance to put in a second bid, and they were gone. A futile and misguided attempt to grab a couple of other players resulted in ten losing bids. Which of course means -10 to the GM rating. I was saved by a late rescind, signed one guy, and lost the rest. Not well played, as I didn't give enough consideration to the blackout rule.

It was difficult for everyone to fill rosters, due to the hording of cheap players by a couple of teams, and the fact that the FAB was only three rounds. It's a made scramble now in the FA pool, as I went in with 21 million, and several other owners were in the same boat. Probably not the best situation, but we've all got to live with it.

Ruth: Wave 3 and Post-FAB begins

It was a fairly quiet day. Lots of folks looking for bargains on veterans and youth. The Biggest signing was D. Willis SP @ $6.5/1Y; Sanchez 3B @ $3.5/2Y; Igawa RP @ $2/1Y. Other than that it was either signed at minimum or a little above or not signed at all.
3 Teams used all or almost all of their years while the rest ranged from using 27 to 43 years used. As far as cash goes Shizzake has $12 left -- they were the only time to use the firesale option and got a very solid team of 27 players for their $. Now add that $12 with the $10 that everyone gets and they will be force to recon with during the post FAB. One team had $8.8 left and rest has $4.5 or less.

For the pugs we start with a core of 25 players and will go into the post FAB with $12.5 and hopefully an extra $2 based on a trade of J. Varitek C @ $5.5/2Y and Saltalmacchia C (prospect) with $3.5 to get McCormick P (Prospect). I still have 2 very good C prospects and get a strong RP out of the Cardinals organization.

Now with the FAB done you need to fill out your needs and get your bench/minor leagues filled up. Depending on what you have for $$, try to find another starter to fill in behind your primary guy -- most everyone now will go for cheap unless there is bidding war over a young must have guy. Within a few minutes of the FAB ending your FA section of the player activity will be available to review and place players onto the market. When all is done, you will want to have between 35 and 40 folks on your roster -- this will cover you for injuries and slumps.

Now is the period of time that you flesh out your team to set it on the road to the championship.
Pugs

Clemente conference - First wave complete

It's actually the morning of Day 3 of the FAB prior to kickoff. A few observations thus far.

I injected young guys with upside the first day. A couple may have been reaches as the crowd wasn't very interested in them. In particular, Corey Hart did not get any more bids. I got all 5 I injected, most importantly Hanley Ramirez at $7.5M 3 yr NT. I like Rich Hill for 3 yr at $3.5M.

I picked up San Fran's young ace in waiting for 2 yrs at $5.5M. Just missed out on John Smoltz for a steal at $5.5M for 2 yrs. I had the same amount bid. Good bargain Carrs!

Another owner got Beltran for $7M 3 yr NT - well done!

Day 2s offers will be important. Lots of great players up for grabs. Good luck to all, except my opponents of course.

Wave Two of Ruth is done

The third day of Ruth's League FAB has come to an end. Only Four teams still have some decent cash left in their account ($17, $13.5, $9 & $8.5) while the rest are $5M and below. Only one is in trouble with years but he has some cash should be able to snag some good players with the few years that are left -- everyone else has a good amount of years left. Some of the days signings showed the start of the bargain hunting among the owners. Lots of $.5 for 1 or 2 years. Some key signings were: Posada C @ $4.0M/1Y; B. McCarthy RP $2.5M/1Y; Lily SP @ $3.0M/1Y; C. Cordero @ $4.5M/2; Peralta SS @ $2.0M/2Y; Figgins OF @ $5.5M/2Y; Shealy 1B @ $1M/2Y; Jennings SP @ $2.5M/1Y; Maine SP @ $2M/2Y; Bosner SP @ $1.5M/1Y; Lowe SP @ $3M/1Y; Zumaya RP @ $4.5M/3Y; Wainright RP @ $3.5M/3Y; Duke SP @ $2M/1Y; Sexson 1B @ $1.5/1Y; Mussina SP @ $4M/1Y; M. Gonzalez RP @ $2.5M/2Y; DeRossa OF @ $3.5M/3Y; DeJesus OF @ $1.5M/1Y; Arroyo SP @ $3.5M/1Y; Matsuzaka SP @ $8.5M/2Y; Tracy 3B @ $2M/3Y; Rodriguez C @ $1.5M/1Y; Cuddyer OF @ $3M/2Y; LoDuca C @ $3M/1Y. So as you can see now the owners are paying a premium for SP.

The Pugs got three players out of the day: Sammy Sosa OF @ $.5M/1Y; L Scott OF @ $1M/1Y NT; MacDougal RP @ $.5M/3Y & Dotel RP @ $1M/2Y. With today's take the pugs have now maxed out for years. We have finished with 67 GM Points and 25 players. The Pugs were able to achieve most of the pre-FAB goals -- we upgraded the C position with a couple of young catchers, filled out the bench and filled up with the RP position. Still need to find an upgrade for 2B and do need some SP but I was not wanting to get into the bidding wars over SPs during the FAB -- there will be some good SP available in the FA period.

Have not seen any effect of the blackout period on the Pugs activities but with us only chasing low contracts its no surprise that we did not see any impact from it although it sounds like it will stop those last minute bids.

So for the 3rd round. Even if I'm out of the FAB I'm still going to spend time taking a look at the available players so that as soon as the FAB finishes up I'll start putting FAs out there. There are still some good players out there and I'm going to have at least $12.5M to spend -- so here is hoping most of the teams get those big price players that they need and burn their money so I can snag some deals during the FA round. Remember once the FAB is done not only does it mean FA but trading can continue -- look at the for trade list and see if something is there that can help you start the season hot.
Good Luck
Pugs

Mays Conference FAB

We're 3/4 through our 2nd round (of 3) of the FAB. Some random musings:

* filling an expansion team (since I used Firesale that's what I have) with talent in 3 rounds is harder than I thought. I was beaten out by $0.5-$1M for every 1st-class player in our 1st round signings yesterday. Cabrera, Wright, Webb, Wells - all of them took an offer just a tiny bit better than mine. I signed good, not top talent: Thome and Helton. Plus some good young pitching - Hamels, James, Olsen, Maine. Overall the prices were higher than I anticipated, with the highest being a very rich $17.5/3/NT for Santana. He's a super pitcher but that's very high. Wonder what he's going for in other leagues?

* I completely fail to understand why I didn't sign Furcal. With a couple of minutes left for him to sign I had the best bid on the board with a $7.5/3 offer - and a 100 GM rating. He signed for that exact offer - but not with me. Going to write the GDR wizards and ask why.

* 2nd round has gone better - I hope. I signed a lot of good talent so far - Rivera, Uggla, Cuddyer, Matthews, Cabrera, Arroyo and Otsuka. I have a good team - but probably lack too much to make a run at the top. My OF in particular is lacking. And I've signed a lot of good but question mark players like Arroyo, Matthews, Hamels and Maine. Plus I set my stadium for hitting and it looks like pitching will be my strength.

* Still a little over a round left - hope my last few offers get taken to round out my club.

All in all an interesting experience so far.

Hey, who turned out the lights?

Ah, the fabulous new Blackout option. I love it, I hate it. I love it, I hate it. Seriously, I'm mixed on this thing.

I mean, it's nice when you can see that you've got the Green and Black and you can rest easy knowing that the player in question is as good as signed. But being Yellow and Black is, well, unnerving. There's a certain charm in being able to relax and know it's entirely out of your hands to change the situation, but it's still unsettling not to be able to dive in and make a change to your offer.

The worst thing, though, is what happened to me last night. I went to bed with a Green 2 on a player whom I'm counting on, feeling good that I could counter any overnight offers from my noble competition, only to wake up and find myself blacked out and now sitting in Yellow land on this guy. That, my friends, sucks.

So, I'd like to make a suggestion to the overworked and underpaid GDR staff. If one has a Green box offer out there that gets bumped down to Yellow or Red and then gets blacked out, how about a chance to respond? To keep this from escalating into a never-ending spiral of "but I had the best offer and then he stole it from me!" I'd suggest that only a GM with a Green 2 get this sort of Brownout option when bumped down before the Blackout period.

I suppose this isn't terribly different from complaints I heard last year regarding getting hit with a GM Rating penalty if you had to make a new offer in the "danger zone" after having been bumped by a sniper when you previously had the best offer. It's basically the same thing - the concept that a Green-2 ought to give you some extra leverage with a player. That is, why should a GM who has made an attractive, earnest offer to a player be penalized for trying to fend off the snipers?

I know this sort of thing is tough to deal within the game's rules - let alone in the code - but it can't hurt to make the suggestion.

FAB Day 1, Oh boy!!!!

I assume from some of the e-mails and posting i've seen on the league page that i'm more fortunate than some of the other owners. I have access throughout the day to GDR.
At about 10:30 EST Monday March 12th I took a hard look at my team planner and believed at that time I was ready for what was about to happen............ the FAB.
At 11:01am I realized no matter how much I prepared it was not enough.
Who would have thought C. Hart Mil OF would be the first player offered. Who is this guy? I asked.
Then comes A Pujois. My original offer was 13m 3Y NT. I thought to myself wow, i'm spending a lot of money. I felt like Steinbrenner. It wasn't enough. Albert turned to me and said "get real". My offer lit up as red as a whore house light bulb.
Right then I decided I wasn't going to let any more grease drip off this bacon and revisited my team planner. I adjusted offers to who I felt were keys to my success.
All of a sudden out of nowhere Mike Cameron is offered. "He's still playing?" were the words out of my mouth. Okay sanity check............ these guys can't be serious.
Then it hit me..... it was like a poker game and no one wanted to show their hand. The next 3 players offered were what you would have expected......... Hamels, Reyes, Utley, etc. but the results were the same... yellow, yellow, yellow.
With some minor adjustments last night I believe my bids are competitive. Only time will tell. I sit here at 9:33am and wonder which of those players colored yellow will really make it to my roster.
As one GM said in a league posting he's never seen so much color on a draft board before.
Good luck to all.

Interesting concept of what a "good" GM is

I read some of the posts around the new GM system, and I have to say, I'm puzzled at what some people think being a "good" GM is. There seems to be a train of thought that that GDR is rewarding "bad" GMs who make "ridiculous" offers. Remember, the GM rating is supposed to reflect the desire of players to negotiate with that GM.

So given that the GM rating is designed from a players' perspective, it's really kind of silly to call an offer ridiculous or a GM bad for making an offer that you consider to be out of the market. The player certainly doesn't see it that way, right? The player LOVES the GM that does this, just like Scott Boras loves Brian Cashman. We don't see anyone calling Cashman a bad GM do we? Well, maybe Boston fans, but get over yourselves (and that coming from a diehard O's fan and Yankee hater). GMs spend money on players when they have it & when they think the player is worth it to their team (i.e. that ONE missing piece), and GDR is no different. So let's stop with the value judgments and agree that one guy's overpay is another guy's bargain, and beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Personally I think the GM point system works as it should with the recent adjustments, the only thing I would add is to echo what others have said about being able to go above the 100 point mark. I was between 95-100 points most of today & I found myself actually incentivized to rescind offers or lower them because, knowing that 2 more signings were coming my way and that I was at 100 points, there was absolutely no good reason to be a "good" GM (i.e. not rescinding or lowering offers) because I knew I was at the point cap.

I do agree with others that the blackout period is heavy handed. It seems to take up the bulk of the remaining time slot and does not give legit owners a chance to respond to someone outbidding them just before the blackout hits. I think the solution to this is to program the system to NOT blackout anyone with green or yellow status on a player. The blackouts need to penalize true snipers, those who wait on the sidelines, giving no clue that they are interested in a player, and pounce 2 seconds before the bidding ends. Cueing the blackout periods only for GMs who have not previously bid on a player should take care of that nicely.

In the Mays league I have invested in young pitching. My strategy there is to take on some risk (Harden's health, Felix's bad sophomore year, Matsuzaka's adjustment to MLB), but to spread the risk among enough players that if I hit on most of them (say, 5 of 8?) that the payoff should be pretty big, to the tune of 18 fpg or so at a price below most of the 20 fpg SPs. I did try to also add THE proven SP talent to that mix with Johan, but was outbid $16.5M/3/NT to $17.5M/3/NT. Fair enough.

For hitting I am also aiming mostly towards breakout-year types, with a couple of vets thrown in & 1 trade hopefully to come that should solidify my lineup from 1-7. In spite of the "win now" mentality in this league (since you're penalized for a poor finish) I've been mixing in a few long-term sleeper contracts (Adam Lind, Miguel Montero) with more clear-cut emerging stars (Nick Markakis, Stephen Drew, Ian Kinsler). I am looking for solid 2.8-3.0 fpg performances from that group & don't think it's unreasonable given their trajectories. If I can get that performance 1-7 in my lineup, I think the pitching, lineup bonuses and park effects will be strong enough to carry most matchups. Let's hope so!

Oh the horror that was Day 1...

What a brutal day.

16 owners, 1.6 billion dollars to spend. 80 players OTM, welcome to Signing Day 1.

I knew going in this would be a challenge, but I highly underestimated the effect of the new GM Ratings modifications. In case you don't know about the rule changes, this year besides the normal penalties for placing a bid in a player's last 10% of OTM availability, lowering a qualifying offer (btw, the Bid Calculator tool rocks), or rescinding an offer, Gameday Ritual has added some new twists. Now, for every player you do not sign, you get a -1 GM point. (This is in addition to the previously mentioned rules) and for every player you do sign, you get an additional +2 GM points.

So, if I place an offer on a certain hotshot center fielder who happens to play for the Cleveland Indians (10m/3/NT) and another owner places an offer that beats mine (14m/3/NT), my Big Red Zero (BRZ) just cost me a -1 GM point. Meanwhile, my competitor gets +2 for the insanely high and inflated bid, and +2 for the signing of the player. That is a 5 point swing on just one transaction. (btw, I am not bitter, not bitter at all.. 14M? really?)

I know, I know it should even out. If I could sign some players. So, here is the horror of my day.

80 players on the market
22 players not signed ( a few of these were looking for bargains, some I am still scratching my head on..)
3 Players signed

But it gets worse. Have you ever butted heads with another owner(s) who seem to be thinking the same as you... same player targets, same dollar amounts. I found mine today. Lets just say that tomorrow I don't want the monkey on my back.

Tie #1
Signing Gorillas Jeter, D. NYA SS 5 41 3.5 $3.0M $9.0M/3Y $9.0M/3Y 29.48 29.48

Tie #2
Signing Gorillas Hafner, T. CLE 1B 504 3.9 $3.0M $10.5M/3Y/NT $10.5M/3Y/NT
42.51 41.85

Technically, the second one wasn't a tie, but did the previous tie push his GM rating just high enough to win the second as well? I will never know and my wife still thinks I am insane for putting this much time and effort into a make believe game that relies on stats from real players that.. anyway I digress.

Tie #3
Signing Blight Garza, M. MIN SP 65 6.5 $0.5M $2.0M/3Y $2.0M/3Y 5.54 5.41

After the third tie, I was done. I didn't even want to finish the day. So, I called a buddy from the league I won last year to cry on his shoulder, ahem I mean share a moment, um no I mean vent my frustrations and his response was,

I can't wait to tell the other owners, they will be ecstatic. Maybe your GM rating will be in the negatives before your finished

Thanks for the support. Thanks a lot. :)

Half done is well begun

So, here in the Ruth Conference, we're only doing a 3-day FAB. And that means we're essentially halfway done, now that the offers for wave two are in. From where I stand, I'm doing ok. My two main plans were to (a) snag quality position players for first base, catcher and at least one outfield spot, and (b) fill in some relievers & starters.

I'm batting .500, having hauled in Prince Fielder (4.5M/3yrs), Russell Martin (3M/3yrs) and Chris B. Young (4M/3yrs). These guys should do a fine job of rounding out my offense for this year. And they should certainly help the guy who gets this team next year break .500...

Meanwhile, my mound dreams were thwarted by other GMs who had just a little more money or a little better GM rating. The super MR I'd id'd (Pat Neshek) signed with one of my worthy opponents over me even though we had the same offer - a sad result of my GM rating sucking due to the previous owner of the team. If only the players would realize I'm the new guy... Hey, how about that as an option in the future, GDR guys? A new GM who takes over an existing team gets to start at 50 rather than being stuck with the old GMs rating?

The starters I targeted simply went for more money that I could spare at this point, despite some strategic waiver action (which certainly didn't help the GM rating, either). All in all, though, I landed the offense I wanted, which should help a great deal. Now I just need to fill in the pitching side with what's still available and hope that the PECOTA projections don't steer me wrong.

Fantasy Hall of Fame open for business again

After winning the Fantasy Hall of Fame league in 2005, I was invited to the Mays Conference league for 2006, and thus dubbed my team name Fantasy Hall of Fame. By finishing 3rd in the Mays Conference last year (2006) I was able to return again for a chance to avenge my playoff loss and hopefully take the title in 2007. It is going to be tough as the group of owners was good last year and some fresh faces are in play for this year.

After extending some contracts I was left with only $17M to spend on the FAB this year, and I am going to need to buy almost a whole new infield and bullpen with that money. Not going to be easy. The good thing is most of the other teams are set as well and there are about 5 teams with even less money to spend then me, however there are also about 5 teams that Firesaled and will be able to outbid us penny pinchers on anyone they want.

In attempts to free up some money for the FAB I made a few trade offers, none of which got accepted, and I received a few offers, none of which I was interested in accepting.... so $17M it is, for now anyway.

Trying to be very frugal in wave 1, I was able to add some bullpen help with potential in Matt Capps and Mike MacDougal both for $1M/1yr. I also stumbled into minimum deals for Jaret Wright and Edwin Encarnacion for $0.5M/1yr each. I had some very near misses on LoDuca, Piazza, and Tadahito Iguchi, but the big score for me in wave 1 was locking up Adam Wainwright for 3 yrs at the cost of $4M per. This guy came into his own at the end of last year and in the playoffs and now has moved back to the rotation and will hopefully be a top SP for me for the next few years. I am expecting a breakout year as a starter from Wainwright this year (as long as Isringhausen stays healthy), even if many magazines don't agree with me and rank plenty of other guys higher.

Just as a footnote this league uses the new 2007 rule of the Black Out period, which I am not a big fan of as I dont have constant access and at times want to get back to a player to potentially adjust my offer and.... what do you know he is in the black and I am too late. I guess it prevents sniping just before a player signs, but I never had too much of a problem with that. Now that the penalties for late offers are stiff, if someone wants a player bad enough that they are willing to take a big GMR hit to get him by sniping then all the power to them.

Position Scarcity, Position reliability and You

I'm now in the middle of three FABs, have competed one, and am getting a healthy dose of not only the new rules, but the same old mistakes that teams continue to make every year. Don't let yourself fall into these traps:

1. Check your lineup page before you start your FAB. Aside from the lovely drawing of a baseball diamond, you should call your attention to the lineup card. You get to start a player at each position on the field, 1 DH, 5 starting pitchers, and three relief pitchers. You can have a player back up these positions, but in general, these are your starters. No matter how many starting pitchers you draft, you'll still only get to start five of them. No matter how many outfielders you draft, you can only start three of them. When you get a bargain basement price of 1 million on that hot rookie, that's a bargain only if you have some place to play him. Avoid overpaying for backups. If you draft more than about 25 players in your FAB, you've wasted a ton of money that should be in your starting lineup. It's a huge mistake, but I see it made over and over again. You could have taken that extra 5 or 6 million, put it toward Albert, and those points would be in your lineup instead of on your bench.

2. Relief pitchers are notoriously unreliable. And, there are lots of them. Don't overpay for the guy that is rumored to be the closer in waiting on a bad team (see Jonathan Broxton). It's like hitting on 16 when the dealer is showing a six, or going all in with 7-2 offsuit. It might work once in a while, but the odds are against it. If you had waited until after the season last year, you could have snagged Papelbon, Putz, Julio, Saito and more. Closers lose their jobs all the time. Roles change from year to year. Don't be the guy that pays 8 million dollars for a closer, when you can buy one for less than half that will produce almost the same value. The same is true to a lesser extent for Starting pitchers. Offensive numbers are more consistent, especially at first base and the outfield, so when you plunk your money down there, you usually know what you're getting.

3. Identify scarce positions, and get the best players. Don't throw a ton of money at outfielders. Look for dropoffs at positions that are scarce, like 2b, ss, and catcher. Get one of the good ones, the OF will take care of itself.

Finally, for you '24' fans out there, don't rely on a CTU perimeter, don't go into a foreign embassy, and for pete sake, don't let crazy people play with knives. I'll bet if some of these presidential candidates watched the show, that might thin out the field!

Playing both ends.... or the middle?

Which way should you go? You've got only 100 million dollars, and the top guys are going to go for alot of money in your draft. Do you spend 14, 15 million or more on Albert Pujols? Johan Santana? A-Rod?

There are two schools of thought when it comes to managing budget. Spend on the studs and fill in with your roster with lower priced players (playing both ends), or paying around 5-10 million for several players (the middle).

The answer to this question is.... it's a matter of opinion. And I come down squarely on the side of playing the ends. This is especially true in smaller leagues, where the difference between the last player drafted and those 5 and 6 million dollar players is much smaller. The secret to making this strategy work is to have good projections for your players, and identify where there is a significant falloff to the next player at that position. The most obvious example of this is Albert Pujols, who is likely to score almost 100 points more than the next player at his position.
But some dropoffs won't be as clear. In some positions, there may be three or four potential targets. But the more of these players you snag, the bigger your advantage over your opponents. In general, it's a good idea to pay for performance only on players who are significantly better. The list is very short, there may be no more than 10 or so players on my list for this year. If you get two or three of them, your advantage in points more than overcomes the cost.

The Mantle conference FAB is underway, 3 rounds, short time between events, and I'm in the middle of two other FABs. Makes it tough, but I did manage to sign three players today, including two (hopefully) up and coming outfielders in Carlos Quentin, 1.5 3 years and Luke Scott 2.5 3 years. I added David Bush to bolster the pitching staff (5.5 million), and Jose Valverde for 3 million 1 year.

Some strange goings on, at least a couple of teams seem to be stockpiling starting pitching, and there seems to be a premium being paid for young and mostly unproven pitching. That's usually a mistake,hopefully Bush will pan out.